What the Iran Strikes Mean for Global Security
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran. Explosions were reported across Tehran, retaliatory Iranian missiles struck US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, and airspace across the Gulf closed within hours. It is, by any measure, a significant escalation — and one that will reshape the security landscape well beyond Iran's borders.
For anyone with operations, assets, or travel plans in the Middle East, the picture changed overnight. But to understand why, you need to look past the strikes themselves and understand the network that Iran has spent decades building.
Iran's Proxy Network Is the Real Threat Multiplier
Iran does not project power the way conventional states do. It does so through a carefully cultivated web of proxy forces — armed groups across the Middle East that are funded, trained, equipped, and in many cases directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas in Gaza. The Houthis in Yemen. Kata'ib Hezbollah and a constellation of Shia militia groups across Iraq and Syria. Together, they form what Iran calls the Axis of Resistance.
This network is not a collection of loosely affiliated groups with shared sympathies. It is a force multiplier — a way for Iran to project military and political influence across the region while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability. When the IRGC wants to apply pressure, it does so through these proxies. When it wants to retaliate, the same.
Those who have served in the British Armed Forces over the past two decades have felt this influence in a very direct sense. The IED networks, the indirect fire, the militia activity that shaped threat environments across Iraq and Syria — much of it traced back, in funding, training, and direction, to Tehran. It was rarely clean or obvious. It rarely needed to be. The point was to make the environment hostile, unpredictable, and costly. Having spent thirteen years with His Majesty's Armed Forces, that operational reality was never far from the picture, regardless of where you were deployed.
That same logic applies now. Iran's immediate military capacity has taken significant damage. But the proxy network remains largely intact. And when Iran retaliates — as it has signalled it will — it will do so through those channels as much as through direct military action.
What This Means for the Region
The Gulf states are already feeling the pressure. Missiles struck US bases in Bahrain and Qatar within hours of the initial strikes. Airspace closed across the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar. Major carriers including Emirates and Lufthansa suspended or rerouted flights. The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of the world's oil passes — is now under heightened threat from IRGC naval forces that have long used harassment of shipping as a pressure tool.
For businesses and organisations with operations across the Gulf, the calculus has shifted. Countries that were considered stable operating environments — the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan — now sit within range of Iranian retaliation, directly or through proxies. That risk does not disappear when the immediate exchange of fire stops. Proxy networks are patient. The threat picture in many of these environments will remain elevated for months, potentially longer.
This is precisely the kind of situation where a travel risk assessment is not a box-ticking exercise — it is an operational necessity. Understanding the current threat environment in any country you are deploying people to, and having contingency plans in place before you need them, is the difference between a managed situation and a crisis.
The Domestic Picture
It would be easy to view this as a purely regional issue. It is not.
Iranian influence extends well beyond the Middle East, and one of the most visible expressions of that in the UK is the protest landscape. Large-scale demonstrations in London and other major cities — often connected to events in the Middle East — have become a regular feature of the security planning conversation. Many principals simply will not move through central London on days when significant protests are expected. That is a rational decision, not an overcautious one. Crowd dynamics are unpredictable, routes become compromised, and the reputational exposure alone can justify a change of plan.
As tensions in the Middle East escalate, that domestic picture is likely to intensify. Protest activity in the UK tends to track major regional events closely, and what is happening right now is about as significant as it gets.
For organisations that operate in complex or sensitive sectors — or for any principal with a public profile — now is the time to ensure that your security planning accounts for the domestic implications of international events, not just the overseas ones.
Planning for an Uncertain Environment
The situation in Iran is still developing. What is already clear is that the consequences will not be contained to Tehran. The proxy network, the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf states, and the streets of major Western cities are all part of the same threat ecosystem — connected by Iranian strategy and by decades of deliberate investment in asymmetric influence.
We offer travel risk management and pre-deployment planning for exactly these kinds of environments — from complex regional deployments through our special projects capability to travel risk assessments for executives operating in areas that have shifted rapidly from low to high risk. If you want to understand what the current picture means for your organisation, get in touch with Prospera. We'll give you an honest answer.